Posted on

My Oscar Predictions (2014)

This Sunday, Neil Patrick Harris hosts the 87th birthday of the most sought after trophy in show business: Oscar.

Here are my predictions in every category (if you are doing a pool, you need to know the lesser known categories too), and reasons why…

Best Picture:

Having seen all the nominees, it is another two-way race. This year, it is Birdman vs. Boyhood. Boyhood had the momentum at first (winning most of the critic awards, plus the Golden Globes). However, Birdman swooped in and took the Producers, Directors, AND Screen Actors guild awards.

It can go either way, but while my head is saying Birdman, it is being way over powered by my love for Boyhood (not to say that Birdman was a bad film: it was great.) Still, one of the things that Birdman does not have going for it is a Best Editing Nomination, which is crucial, as the last film to win Best Picture without that nomination was Ordinary People (1980). Also, while history does not always agree with Oscar, I am feeling they will here, as a movie like Boyhood is something that will never be done probably ever again.

Will win: Boyhood

Could win: Birdman

Should win: Boyhood

Best Director

While Richard Linklater looked like the go to winner, the Directors Guild (which is really good at predicting this award) went with Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu for Birdman. It is hard to vote against the DGAs.

Will win: Inarritu, Birdman

Could win: Linklater, Boyhood

Should win: Inarritu (it was a technical blowout of awesome).

Best Actor

The only real acting race, it is between Michael Keaton for Birdman and Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. Keaton was the frontrunner, but Redmayne struck back with his SAG award.

In the end, I am going with Redmayne. The Oscars has a lot of statistics people use to help predict, but there is one that is overlooked. Ever since Dame Judi Dench won an Oscar for playing the Queen in Shakespeare in Love (1998), there has been at least one winner in the four acting categories who has won the award for playing a real life person. Since that will not happen in the other three acting categories this year (see below), that gives the edge to Redmayne.

Will win: Eddie Redmayne

Could Win: Michael Keaton

Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch (for his very emotionally well done work in The Imitation Game)

Best Actress

I have only seen two of the nominees, but one of them I did see is going to win. Julianne Moore not only has the sympathy vote of never having won, but her work in Still Alice is spell binding. It is one of the easiest calls of the night. Don’t bet against Moore.

Will Win: Julianne Moore

Could win: Rosamund Pike Gone Girl (really no one can beat Moore)

Should win: Moore

Best Supporting Actor

I still have yet to see The Judge, but Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, and Mark Ruffalo do great work. The problem is, they are up against J.K. Simmons for Whiplash, and he is winning this award. It is the most sure win of the night. Simmons will win. He has looked back on his nominees, and has said “Sorry guys, not my tempo.”

Will win: Simmons

Could win: Maybe Norton or Hawke, but they have no real chance

Should win: Simmons (He was really remarkable)

Best Supporting Actress

Sorry Laura Dern, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, and even Meryl Streep. You four should know by now this is going to Patrica Arquette for her masterful work as the mom of Boyhood.

Will win: Arquette

Could win: Stone (again, VERY unlikely)

Should win: Arquette

Best Original Screenplay

While it could go to Birdman or Boyhood, my money is on Wes Andersen finally getting a much deserved Oscar for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel.

Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Could win: Birdman

Should win: Boyhood

Best Adapted Screenplay

Expect this to be the only win for The Imitation Game.

Will win: The Imitation Game

Could win: Whiplash

Should win: Whiplash

Best Animated Feature

Despite the Golden Globe win, I feel Big Hero 6 will prevail over How to Train your Dragon 2.

Will win: Big Hero 6

Could win: How to Train your Dragon 2

Should win: The Lego Movie (don’t get me started on this horrible snub)

Best Foreign Language Film

Leviathan won the Globe, but I have heard nothing but praise for Ida.

Will Win: Ida

Could win: Leviathan

Best Cinematography

He won already last year, but expect a second win for Emmanuel Lubezski for his stellar work on Birdman

Will win: Emmanuel Lubezski Birdman

Could win: Robert D. Yeoman The Grand Budapest Hotel

Should win: Lubezski

Best Film Editing

While I loved the Editing of Whiplash, it will probably go to Boyhood, making the film win a total of 3 Oscars for the night.

Will win: Boyhood

Could/Should win: Whiplash

Best Production Design

Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Costume Design

Will/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Make up

Will Win: Foxcatcher

Could/Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy

Best Original Score

Will win: The Theory of Everything

Could/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Best Original Song

Another tough category, as I first thought “Lost Stars” would easily win, but then I heard “Glory” and “I’m not gonna miss you” (by Glen Campbell, suffering from Alzheimer’s). Since Selma won’t win Best Picture, it should win here for its tune that will captivate you for days afterwards (although “Everything is Awesome” could spoil).

Will win: “Glory”

Could win: I’m not gonna miss you”

Should win: “Lost Stars”

Best Sound Editing

Will win: American Sniper

Best Sound Mixing

Will win: Whiplash

Best Special Effects

Will win: Interstellar

Best Documentary

Will win: CITIZENFOUR

Best Documentary, Short Subject

Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1

Best Animated Short Film

Will win: Feast (was shown before Big Hero 6)

Best Short Film, Live Action

Will win: Boogaloo and Graham

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s