This Sunday, Neil Patrick Harris hosts the 87th birthday of the most sought after trophy in show business: Oscar.
Here are my predictions in every category (if you are doing a pool, you need to know the lesser known categories too), and reasons why…
Having seen all the nominees, it is another two-way race. This year, it is Birdman vs. Boyhood. Boyhood had the momentum at first (winning most of the critic awards, plus the Golden Globes). However, Birdman swooped in and took the Producers, Directors, AND Screen Actors guild awards.
It can go either way, but while my head is saying Birdman, it is being way over powered by my love for Boyhood (not to say that Birdman was a bad film: it was great.) Still, one of the things that Birdman does not have going for it is a Best Editing Nomination, which is crucial, as the last film to win Best Picture without that nomination was Ordinary People (1980). Also, while history does not always agree with Oscar, I am feeling they will here, as a movie like Boyhood is something that will never be done probably ever again.
Will win: Boyhood
Could win: Birdman
Should win: Boyhood
While Richard Linklater looked like the go to winner, the Directors Guild (which is really good at predicting this award) went with Alejandro Gonzales Inarritu for Birdman. It is hard to vote against the DGAs.
Will win: Inarritu, Birdman
Could win: Linklater, Boyhood
Should win: Inarritu (it was a technical blowout of awesome).
The only real acting race, it is between Michael Keaton for Birdman and Eddie Redmayne for The Theory of Everything. Keaton was the frontrunner, but Redmayne struck back with his SAG award.
In the end, I am going with Redmayne. The Oscars has a lot of statistics people use to help predict, but there is one that is overlooked. Ever since Dame Judi Dench won an Oscar for playing the Queen in Shakespeare in Love (1998), there has been at least one winner in the four acting categories who has won the award for playing a real life person. Since that will not happen in the other three acting categories this year (see below), that gives the edge to Redmayne.
Will win: Eddie Redmayne
Could Win: Michael Keaton
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch (for his very emotionally well done work in The Imitation Game)
I have only seen two of the nominees, but one of them I did see is going to win. Julianne Moore not only has the sympathy vote of never having won, but her work in Still Alice is spell binding. It is one of the easiest calls of the night. Don’t bet against Moore.
Will Win: Julianne Moore
Could win: Rosamund Pike Gone Girl (really no one can beat Moore)
Should win: Moore
Best Supporting Actor
I still have yet to see The Judge, but Ethan Hawke, Edward Norton, and Mark Ruffalo do great work. The problem is, they are up against J.K. Simmons for Whiplash, and he is winning this award. It is the most sure win of the night. Simmons will win. He has looked back on his nominees, and has said “Sorry guys, not my tempo.”
Will win: Simmons
Could win: Maybe Norton or Hawke, but they have no real chance
Should win: Simmons (He was really remarkable)
Best Supporting Actress
Sorry Laura Dern, Keira Knightley, Emma Stone, and even Meryl Streep. You four should know by now this is going to Patrica Arquette for her masterful work as the mom of Boyhood.
Will win: Arquette
Could win: Stone (again, VERY unlikely)
Should win: Arquette
Best Original Screenplay
While it could go to Birdman or Boyhood, my money is on Wes Andersen finally getting a much deserved Oscar for his work on The Grand Budapest Hotel.
Will win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Could win: Birdman
Should win: Boyhood
Best Adapted Screenplay
Expect this to be the only win for The Imitation Game.
Will win: The Imitation Game
Could win: Whiplash
Should win: Whiplash
Best Animated Feature
Despite the Golden Globe win, I feel Big Hero 6 will prevail over How to Train your Dragon 2.
Will win: Big Hero 6
Could win: How to Train your Dragon 2
Should win: The Lego Movie (don’t get me started on this horrible snub)
Best Foreign Language Film
Leviathan won the Globe, but I have heard nothing but praise for Ida.
Will Win: Ida
Could win: Leviathan
He won already last year, but expect a second win for Emmanuel Lubezski for his stellar work on Birdman
Will win: Emmanuel Lubezski Birdman
Could win: Robert D. Yeoman The Grand Budapest Hotel
Should win: Lubezski
Best Film Editing
While I loved the Editing of Whiplash, it will probably go to Boyhood, making the film win a total of 3 Oscars for the night.
Will win: Boyhood
Could/Should win: Whiplash
Best Production Design
Will win/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Costume Design
Will/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Make up
Will Win: Foxcatcher
Could/Should win: Guardians of the Galaxy
Best Original Score
Will win: The Theory of Everything
Could/Should win: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Original Song
Another tough category, as I first thought “Lost Stars” would easily win, but then I heard “Glory” and “I’m not gonna miss you” (by Glen Campbell, suffering from Alzheimer’s). Since Selma won’t win Best Picture, it should win here for its tune that will captivate you for days afterwards (although “Everything is Awesome” could spoil).
Will win: “Glory”
Could win: I’m not gonna miss you”
Should win: “Lost Stars”
Best Sound Editing
Will win: American Sniper
Best Sound Mixing
Will win: Whiplash
Best Special Effects
Will win: Interstellar
Will win: CITIZENFOUR
Best Documentary, Short Subject
Will win: Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
Best Animated Short Film
Will win: Feast (was shown before Big Hero 6)
Best Short Film, Live Action
Will win: Boogaloo and Graham